Canadian Housing Market Outlook, Fall 2021.
Canadian housing market expected to remain strong this fall, despite Delta variant, say RE/MAX brokers and realtors
Young families driving demand for single-detached homes in cities across the country
- Canadian housing market prices are anticipated to increase by 5% in the remaining months of 2021, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents.
- 26/29 major Canadian housing markets analyzed are seller’s markets, driven by lack of supply and high demand.
Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, October 5, 2021 – Early indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents across the Canadian housing market suggest steady activity for the remainder of 2021. According to the RE/MAX Canada 2021 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report, RE/MAX brokers and agents expect the average residential sale price for all home types could increase by five per cent from now until the end of the year.
Single-detached homes experienced the biggest price gains when comparing 2021* to 2020 data, rising between 6.8 and 27.3 per cent across 26 markets surveyed in the report. RE/MAX brokers and agents expect this trend to continue into the fall, driven by strong demand by young families.
“As our brokers and agents predict, the fall market activity is expected to remain steady, which is promising, despite the ongoing challenges presented by the Delta variant,” says Christopher Alexander, Senior Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “This is particularly relevant given the Canadian housing markets is often a good indicator of economic activity in the country, and with the Bank of Canada forecasting economic growth of 4.5 per cent in 2022, a strong fall housing market is a good sign that things may be starting to return to a more natural rhythm.”
Regional Canadian Housing Market Overview
WESTERN CANADA
High housing prices, driven up by low supply and high demand, have created challenging conditions for many homebuyers across Canada, especially in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. However, affordable options still exist for homebuyers who are considering alternative markets, thanks to their continued ability to work remotely. RE/MAX brokers have reported this trend in Edmonton and Calgary, where buyers are leveraging increased purchasing power thanks to local housing affordability coupled with lower interest rates. RE/MAX brokers and agents anticipate this trend to continue through the remainder of 2021.
When comparing activity year-over-year (YoY) average sale prices across single-detached homes, condos and townhomes, British Columbia’s Nanaimo, Victoria and Vancouver experienced significant price growth, at 23 per cent, 19.1 per cent and 16.4 per cent, respectively. Nanaimo also saw one of the largest price surges in its condo and townhome segments when compared to other Western Canada regions, with average condo prices currently sitting at $343,713 (a 17.6-per-cent increase YoY), and townhomes at $492,536 (a 21.9-per-cent increase YoY). In Calgary and Regina, the fall outlooks are relatively status quo, with prices expected to remain flat in Calgary and up one per cent in Regina. Meanwhile, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Vancouver, Victoria, Winnipeg and Nanaimo are expected to see price gains ranging between four and nine per cent through the remainder of the year, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents.
ONTARIO
Unsurprisingly, Ontario has seen some of the highest average residential price increases across single-detached homes in the country, with the majority of regions (13 out of 16), experiencing increases between 20 and 35.5 per cent YoY. The outlier markets that experienced price increases below 20 per cent include Toronto (+14.6 per cent), Thunder Bay (+17.1 per cent) and Mississauga (+19.7 per cent).
The condo and townhome segment in all of these regions has also performed well, with smaller and more suburban markets such as Kitchener, North Bay, London, Peterborough, and Southern Georgian Bay seeing a higher surge YoY. The estimated price outlook for the remainder of the year ranges from a two-per-cent price decrease in North Bay, to increases across the other regions ranging between two and 15 per cent.
ATLANTIC CANADA
Housing market activity in Atlantic Canada remained persistent YoY, with Halifax and Moncton seeing significant price increases across all property types. Single-detached homes in Halifax rose 24.3 per cent YoY, from $402,484 to $500,147. Meanwhile, Moncton detached prices gained 21.2 per cent YoY, from $233,676 to $282,886. The condo and townhome segments in Halifax, Saint John and Moncton all saw prices surge between 12.5 per cent and 48.9 per cent YoY.
Housing prices in St. John’s, NFLD were more tempered, with single-detached homes rising 8.4 per cent YoY (from $343,070 in 2020 to $371,970 in 2021) and townhomes experiencing a 2.8-per-cent increase, from $247,432 in 2020 to $254,462 in 2021. Condominiums were the only property segment to see a decline in average price, down 1.9 per cent YoY, from $261,425 in 2020 to $256,415 in 2021. However, sales in the region have been brisk across all property types, with detached-home sales up 60.4 per cent YoY, condominium sales up 75.7 per cent, and townhome sales up 94.1 per cent.
Moncton in particular is expected to continue strong, with one of the highest price outlooks for the remainder of 2021, between 12 and 15 per cent. Saint John is expected to see more-tempered price growth, ranging between one- to three-per-cent across all property types, while Halifax could see a six-per-cent increase in average sale price for the remainder of the year. In St. John’s, detached home prices are expected to rise one per cent through the remainder of 2021, while condo and townhome prices should hold steady.
“Housing activity throughout the pandemic has remained strong, so it comes as no surprise that the outlook for the remainder of the year continues on an upward trajectory, which is great for homeowners and their equity, but challenging for first-time buyers who have been priced out of the market,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “We must continue to educate Canadians from a practical, real world, point of view. What is affecting the Canadian housing market right now? Low Interest rates, economic stimulus, higher home-buying budgets, a higher savings rate, homeowners too scared to sell, and not enough new construction. These factors have created current market conditions.”
Adds Alexander, “The Canadian housing market has historically given homeowners great long-term returns and solid financial security, but there’s no doubt that the rapid price growth we’ve experienced recently is cause for concern. However, it’s not cause for panic. The data shows single-detached home price acceleration may be starting to level off in some urban centres, but prices continue to rise in many smaller cities and communities that were once havens for affordability. Real estate has been a boon to the Canadian economy, during the pandemic and before it. We believe in the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, but in order to protect it, we need to acknowledge and address the housing supply shortage. Our current government needs to stop applying band-aids and cure the problem at its root.”
About the 2021 RE/MAX Fall Housing Market Outlook Report
The 2021 RE/MAX Fall Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The fall outlook is based on predictions of RE/MAX brokers and agents. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transactions in each region.
*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021-August 31, 2021.
